Nature Climate Change, Published online: 01 July 2024; doi:10.1038/s41558-024-02061-8
How the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will change under sustained warming beyond the year 2100 is not well known. Here the authors show that while ENSO variability will exhibit diverse changes in the short term, continued warming will lead to a consistent decrease in variability in the long term.