A year above 1.5 °C signals that Earth is most probably within the 20-year period that will reach the Paris Agreement limit

Nature Climate Change, Published online: 10 February 2025; doi:10.1038/s41558-025-02246-9

What a first year with temperature 1.5 °C above the pre-industrial baseline implies for long-term temperature goals is unclear. Here the authors show that such a first year above the baseline is highly likely to occur within the first 20-year period with average warming of 1.5 °C.